tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1850694772693771096.post7048636701812453599..comments2022-04-18T18:00:34.070+12:00Comments on Andrew's Walking (& Running): Updated Race Time PredictionAndrew Shelleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05873848443926006773noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1850694772693771096.post-8350329950565189572014-03-30T14:54:50.122+13:002014-03-30T14:54:50.122+13:00I should have also added, the output of the new an...I should have also added, the output of the new analysis is available on this blog at http://andrewwalking.blogspot.co.nz/2014/03/race-time-prediction.htmlAndrew Shelleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05873848443926006773noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1850694772693771096.post-48920011515910498202014-03-30T14:54:02.311+13:002014-03-30T14:54:02.311+13:00Hi Philip
It has taken a long while (2.5 years si...Hi Philip<br /><br />It has taken a long while (2.5 years since your comment), but the analysis has now been updated. There is now considerably more data (9,514 data pairs), and the exponent has returned to 1.20.<br /><br />The track and flat loop events are critical for the exponent, but we really don't get enough people doing them. My analysis relies on having the same person competing at different distances/events over a relatively narrow time period (4 years), but unfortunately the flat events don't attract he entrants.<br /><br />Cheers<br /><br />AndrewAndrew Shelleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05873848443926006773noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1850694772693771096.post-6871940840211748752011-10-31T15:09:24.445+13:002011-10-31T15:09:24.445+13:00Hi Andrew:
I think the change in the exponent fro...Hi Andrew:<br /><br />I think the change in the exponent from 1.197 to 1.120 is significant. The change suggests to me that the data set for the first estimate (1.197) was not large enough. Two questions come to mind:<br /><br />1. How much do you think the 1.120 would change if you had a lot more data?<br /><br />2. Have you considered applying your analysis to more homogeneous sets of events. For example, track events or track and flat loop events (such as 100K in Hagley Park)?<br /><br />Best wishes.<br /><br />Philip<br />NZ CenturionsPhilip Sharphttp://www.math.auckland.ac.nz/~sharpnoreply@blogger.com